Experts Caution Nigeria Against Sudden Solar Import Ban

Experts Caution Nigeria Against Sudden Solar Import Ban

Ahmad Sirajo Makama, Abuja

Concerns over worsening energy poverty have intensified amid growing calls to restrict the importation of solar panels, with stakeholders warning that such a move could cut off a critical lifeline for millions of Nigerians already struggling with unreliable electricity

The issue came to the fore at a global initiative workshop and media training on Renewable Energy reporting held in Abuja, where the Nigerian Campaign Director of the Secure Energy Project, Joseph Ibrahim, described Nigeria’s energy crisis as a pressing economic emergency.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation with over 220 million people, currently generates between 4,000 and 5,000 megawatts of electricity, far below its estimated demand of 20,000–30,000 megawatts.

This translates to roughly 4–5 watts per capita, compared to over 1,000 watts per capita in developed economies,

highlighting the scale of the deficit.
According to Ibrahim, this shortfall has left about 85 million Nigerians without access to grid electricity, while many others experience frequent outages, forcing households and businesses to rely on costly alternatives.

“In this vacuum, solar energy has evolved from a luxury into a necessity,” he said, noting that Nigeria’s off-grid solar market is now one of the fastest-growing in Africa, valued at over $2 billion, with annual growth rates estimated at 15–20 percent"

"Across the country, solar systems power small businesses, schools, and health centres, particularly in rural and underserved communities. Industry estimates suggest that over 10 million Nigerians now depend on solar home systems or mini-grids as their primary or backup power source" He said

While the Federal Government is considering restricting solar panel imports to stimulate local manufacturing, Ibrahim warned that Nigeria’s current production capacity is insufficient.

According to him  local solar assembly capacity is estimated at just 250–300 megawatts annually, compared to national demand that runs into several gigawatts.

He said this gap makes an immediate import ban impractical.

“For millions already underserved, such a move could deepen economic hardship rather than alleviate it,”

He instead advocated a phased transition strategy, combining gradual import reduction with targeted investments in local manufacturing, financing frameworks, and quality assurance systems.

Climate change expert Dr Femi Asonibare revealed that public awareness of the proposed solar import restriction remains low.

"Findings from the Global Initiative for Food Security and Ecosystem Preservation show that a majority of Nigerians are unaware of the policy discussions, despite the sector’s importance"

"However, when informed, public sentiment is clear: most respondents favour a phased ban, while over 70 percent emphasize affordability as their top concern"

He stressed that the report also highlights that solar solutions currently reduce household energy costs by 30–50 per cent compared to diesel or petrol generators, which remain widely used despite rising fuel prices.

Similarly, Country Lead of the Global Solar Council Coalition in Nigeria, Daniel Oladoja, said research indicates that 85–89 percent of Nigerians oppose an outright ban on solar imports.

He warned that global developments such as potential subsidy cuts in China, the world’s largest solar manufacturer could increase prices by 10–25 percent in the near term, making imports even more expensive.

“If Nigeria restricts imports before building local capacity, it risks supply shortages and price shocks,” Oladoja said.

Drawing comparisons with the petroleum sector, he referenced the gradual development of the Dangote Refinery, noting that fuel imports were only reduced after significant domestic capacity was established.

"Energy Access Still a Development Crisis
Nigeria’s energy poverty extends beyond households"

According to the World Bank, unreliable electricity costs the Nigerian economy an estimated $26 billion annually equivalent to about 2 percent of GDP—due to lost productivity and increased operating costs.
Additionally:

Over 60 percent of small businesses rely on generators as Nigerians spend an estimated $14 billion annually on fuel for self-generation power outages average over 30 hours per week in many areas.

Speaking at the event, Lucky Abeng, National Coordinator of GreenFaith Africa, described the situation as a national development emergency.

“This is not just an infrastructural gap—it’s a development crisis affecting healthcare, education, and livelihoods,” he said.

Experts agree that while developing local manufacturing is critical for long-term energy security, policy decisions must reflect current realities.

A proposed roadmap includes:
A 5–10 year phased reduction in imports
Incentives for local manufacturers and investors duty waivers for raw materials and components expansion of mini-grids and off-grid solar systems for millions of Nigerians, the priority remains immediate and clear access to reliable, affordable power.

As policymakers weigh their options, stakeholders insist that Nigeria’s energy future depends not on abrupt restrictions, but on carefully sequenced reforms that balance industrial ambition with the urgent need to keep the lights on.